Daily Forex News and Watchlist: NZD/CAD
New Zealand is about to release its quarterly jobs report soon!
Can this spur a big breakout on NZD/CAD’s triangle pattern?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at the correction levels on EUR/AUD ahead of China’s PMI releases. Be sure to check out if it’s still a valid play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Japanese unemployment rate held steady at 2.5% in December
Japan’s Dec preliminary industrial production dipped 0.1% m/m vs. projected 1.1% slump
Japanese Dec retail sales accelerated from 2.5% to 3.8% y/y vs. 3.2% forecast
Australian private sector credit rose by 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% forecast in Dec
Australia’s retail sales slumped by 3.9% m/m in Dec vs. projected 0.2% dip on GST
Chinese official manufacturing PMI rose from 47.0 to 50.1 in Jan vs. 50.2 consensus
Chinese official non-manufacturing PMI up from 41.6 to 54.4 in Jan vs. 52.0 forecast
IMF raised its global GDP forecast to 2.9% growth this year
Japanese consumer confidence index improved from 30.3 to 31.0 in Jan
French consumer spending slumped 1.3% m/m vs. expected 0.2% uptick in Dec
French flash GDP showed 0.1% growth q/q in Q4 vs. estimated flat reading
German import prices down by 1.6% m/m vs. estimated 2.4% slump in Dec
German retail sales tumbled 5.3% m/m vs. expected 0.1% dip in Dec
Swiss retail sales slowed by 2.8% y/y vs. estimated 0.7% drop in Dec
Eurozone preliminary flash GDP q/q at 10:00 pm GMT
Canadian monthly GDP at 1:30 pm GMT
U.S. Chicago PMI at 2:45 pm GMT
U.S. CB consumer confidence index at 3:00 pm GMT
New Zealand quarterly jobs report at 9:45 pm GMT
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What to Watch: NZD/CAD
This pair might be in for a big move in a few hours, as New Zealand gears up to release its quarterly jobs report.
A slowdown in hiring is eyed for the last quarter of 2022, with number crunchers projecting a meager 0.3% uptick in employment versus the earlier 1.3% jump.
Weaker than expected results might spur a leg lower for Kiwi pairs, as this might signal that the RBNZ needs to take it easy with its tightening efforts.
In that case, NZD/CAD might make a bearish breakout from its symmetrical triangle pattern. I’m waiting on a move below the .8650 minor psychological mark to confirm that a selloff is in order.
Technical indicators also seem to be in favor of a downside move, as a bearish moving average crossover is taking place. In addition, Stochastic has plenty of room to head south, so the pair could keep following suit while Kiwi bears have the upper hand.
Don’t forget that Canada has its monthly GDP up for release also, so this might also add some volatility for NZD/CAD. Another 0.1% expansion is eyed, but an upside surprise might lead to an early Loonie rally.
Make sure you take the average NZD/CAD volatility into account when setting entries and exits!