Oil-dollar: Current dynamics and market expectations – Analytics & Forecasts – 5 July 2023

Several multidirectional factors continue to operate on the oil market, while WTI oil quotations “groped” support at $67.00 per barrel: since March, the price has tried to break through this support 5 times, but so far without success.

As you know, at the beginning of last month, at the next OPEC+ summit, it was decided to reduce production next year by 3.66 million barrels per day (up to 40.46 million barrels per day), which is about 1.4 million barrels less OPEC+ production target for 2023.

According to oil market analysts, cuts in production by OPEC+ will lead to an increase in oil prices, possibly to previously reached levels of $ 90-100 per barrel, although much will also depend on the state of the global economy, the US and Chinese oil markets, as well as dollar dynamics.

Of the factors negative for oil prices, it is worth highlighting not very positive news regarding the economy of China, the largest consumer of oil, and the intention of the Fed’s leadership to continue the cycle of raising the interest rate.

Continued cuts in oil production by OPEC+ contribute to the formation of positive dynamics of quotations, but so far – only in the short term. So far, the oil bulls have not been able to reverse the downward trend in oil prices, and the nearest resistance for WTI oil is already at the level of 71.60 (with the current quote of 71.10 – 71.20 dollars per barrel.

In the oil market, as we noted above, a steady downward trend has formed, and multiple positive news from the oil market have only a short-term positive impact on the price without changing the general trend.

In order to break out again into the zone of a long-term bull market, the price needs to overcome the key resistance levels at 77.40, 78.40.

In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the support levels of 70.87, 70.30, 70.18 will be a signal to resume short positions.

Long-term targets for decline in this case are the support levels of 57.30, 54.50, separating the global bull market from the bear market.

Support levels: 70.87, 70.30, 70.18, 70.00, 67.00, 64.00, 62.00, 61.00, 57.30, 54.50

Resistance levels: 71.60, 74.80, 75.40, 77.40, 78.40, 83.00, 94.00