- NZD/USD stays pressured at the lowest levels in a week.
- NZ Q1 Manufacturing Sales improved from prior but slide beneath upbeat forecasts.
- Clear downside break of one-week-old symmetrical triangle, bearish MACD signals suggest further fall in Kiwi price.
- RSI conditions suggest bottom-picking around yearly low marked in the last week.
NZD/USD bears occupy the driver’s seat as the Kiwi pair remains depressed at the weekly low surrounding 0.6030 amid the early Asian session on Thursday, after falling the most in a fortnight the previous day.
In doing so, the Kiwi pair ignores the recently firmer New Zealand (NZ) data while paying more attention to the previous day’s downside break of a one-weeklong symmetrical triangle. That said, NZ Manufacturing Sales improves to -2.1% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 versus 3.9% expected and -4.7% prior.
It should be noted that the heaviest bearish MACD signals in nearly two weeks join the aforementioned triangle breakdown to keep the NZD/USD bears hopeful.
With this, the quote appears all set to prod the 0.6000 psychological magnet. However, the RSI (14) is below the 50.0 level and hence the yearly low marked in the last week around 0.5985 may offer an opportunity for the counter-trend traders to take the risk.
Should the quote fails to recover from 0.5985, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the early October 2022 top near 0.5815 can’t be ruled out.
On the contrary, NZD/USD recovery appears elusive unless the quote stays below the previously stated triangle formation’s bottom line, close to 0.6065 at the latest. Even so, the top of the triangle, near 0.6100, can act as an extra check for the bulls before giving them control.
Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May 10-31 downturn, around 0.6180, will be key to watch for the NZD/USD bulls.
NZD/USD: Four-hour chart
Trend: Limited downside expected
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