Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis and Charts
- Will the US Jobs Report spark another gold price shock?
- Gold’s daily chart remains positive, for now.
DailyFX Economic Calendar
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A busy pre-Christmas for traders starts today with the latest US Jobs release at 13:30 UK. This week’s US labor data has been weak with Tuesday’s JOLTs Job Openings at the lowest level in nearly two-and-a-half years, while Wednesday’s private sector ADP release showed job and pay growth moderating further.
US ADP Monthly Stats
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Today’s Nonfarm Payroll report is expected to show 180k new jobs created in November compared to 150k in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%. A lower-than-expected number will underpin expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at the end of Q1/start of Q2 next year. The latest CME Fed Fund probabilities see a total of 125 basis points of rate cuts in the US next year.
CME Fed Fund Probabilities
The gold market started with a bang this week when the precious metal soared to a record high in Asia trade on Monday. The wider market however didn’t trust the move and sent gold back towards $2,000/oz. before XAU/USD stabilized over the last few days to its current level on either side of $2,030/oz. The technical set up remains positive with gold above all three simple moving averages, while the 50-/200-day crossover at the end of last week signaled a bullish ‘golden cross’. Initial support is seen at $2,009/oz. followed by $2,000/oz. A break above $2,032/oz. and $2,043/oz. is needed to consolidate bullish momentum.
Gold Daily Price Chart – December 8, 2023
Chart via TradingView
Retail trader data shows 61.39% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.59 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.79% higher than yesterday and 26.55% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.11% lower than yesterday and 26.92% lower than last week.
See how changes in IG Retail Trader data can affect price action.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -6% | -8% | -7% |
| Weekly | 23% | -30% | -5% |
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