Dollar weakness seems to be the name of the game so far this week, but are traders simply bracing for another set of top-tier catalysts?
Before moving on, ICYMI, I’ve listed the potential economic catalysts that you need to watch out for this week. Check them out before you place your first trades today!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. Empire State manufacturing index tumbled from +9.1 to -14.5 in December vs. projected +2.0 figure, as new orders fell for the third consecutive month
U.S. industrial production posted meager 0.2% m/m uptick in November (vs. 0.3% m/m estimate), following earlier 0.9% decline (revised from initially reported 0.6% dip)
U.S. flash manufacturing PMI slipped from 49.4 to 48.2 vs. 49.5 forecast in December, flash services PMI up from 50.8 to 51.3 vs. 50.7 forecast to reflect stronger expansion
New Zealand Westpac consumer sentiment index improved from 80.2 to 88.9 in Q4 2023, suggesting that households are less pessimistic in the holiday spending season
New Zealand BusinessNZ Services Index climbed from 49.2 to 51.2 to reflect a return in industry expansion in November
Russian Deputy PM Novak says the country is considering “an additional 50,000 bpd, maybe more” in oil output cuts beyond the 300,000 barrels per day agreed for the year
Price Action News
Overlay of EUR vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
Most FX pairs appear to be starting off in consolidation, as traders brace themselves for another round of potential market movers later in the week.
The Greenback is off to a mostly shaky start so far, edging down against the higher-yielding commodity currencies in the Asian trading session.
In particular, the U.S. currency is lowest against the Kiwi, which has gotten a boost from improved business and consumer sentiment indices released over the weekend.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
German Ifo business climate index at 9:00 am GMT
BOE MPC member Broadbent’s speech at 10:30 am GMT
U.S. NAHB housing market index at 3:00 pm GMT
RBA meeting minutes at 12:30 am GMT (Dec. 19)
BOJ monetary policy decision coming up
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! ️
USD/CHF 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
Dollar traders seem to be off to a sleepy start to the week, as risk-on vibes may be coming in play. There hasn’t been much on the docket so far, which means that traders may be reacting to last Friday’s mostly downbeat U.S. data.
It’s a quiet day in terms of top-tier data releases from Uncle Sam today, leaving traders to adjust their Fed policy bets ahead of the U.S. core PCE price index release on Friday.
For now, USD/CHF is still cruising safely below its short-term falling trend line, and it looks like another test of resistance might be in order.
The Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the pair is already testing the 50% level and might be ready to resume its drop to the nearby support zones at S1 (.8670) or S2 (.8630) that lines up with the swing low.
Technical indicators are reflecting the presence of bullish vibes, though, as the 100 SMA just crossed above the 200 SMA while Stochastic is pulling up from the oversold region.
In addition, the moving averages might hold as dynamic support around the pivot point (.8690) and take USD/CHF for a larger pullback to the 61.8% Fib near R1 (.8720). Watch out for a rally to R2 (.8750) in case price busts through this ceiling!
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