Who else is looking at EUR pairs ahead of the ECB’s meeting minutes?
EUR/JPY may be ready to make new weekly highs today. What do you think of this 15-minute chart?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at AUD/CAD’s break and retest setup ahead of Australia’s PMI releases. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
U.S. short-term inflation expectations rose to 4.5% over the next year, a seven-month high
U.S. Durable Goods Orders for October: -5.4% m/m (-2.8% m/m forecast; 4.0% m/m previous); core durable goods at 0.0% m/m (0.1% m/m forecast; 0.2% m/m previous)
Weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 209K (226K forecast; 233K previous)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (revised): 61.3 (60.4 forecast; 63.8 previous)
EIA weekly crude oil inventory change for week ending Nov. 17, 2023: 8.7M barrels vs. 3.59M barrels previous
BOC Gov. Macklem hinted at “peak interest rate” for the central bank, and said that “Interest rates may now be restrictive enough to get us back to price stability.”
Japanese markets out on bank holiday
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said it would tighten its oversight on spot and futures trading for iron ore after the commodity rallied despite weaker domestic demand for steel
Australia’s manufacturing PMI for November: 47.7 (vs. 48.2 previous); Services PMI dipped from 47.9 to 46.3; data “shows that it is still too early to think about rate cuts in Australia”
HCOB French manufacturing PMI for November: 42.6 (43.2 forecast, 42.8 previous); Services PMI: 45.3 (45.6 forecast, 45.2 previous)
HCOB German manufacturing PMI for November: 42.3 (41.1 forecast, 40.8 previous); Services PMI: 48.7 (48.4 forecast, 48.2 previous)
HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI for November: 43.8 (43.3 forecast, 43.1 previous); Services PMI: 48.2 (48.0 forecast, 47.8 previous)
S&P Global / CIPS U.K. manufacturing PMI for November: 46.7 (45.0 forecast, 44.8 previous); Services PMI: 50.5 (49.5 forecast and previous)
Price Action News
Overlay of NZD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
Aside from USD, the New Zealand dollar saw the most action in the last few hours. New Zealand didn’t print any top-tier report but the commodity-related currency may have found support from China adding more property firms to its list of eligible businesses that may receive support.
New Zealand is also swearing in a new Prime Minister on Monday, which could have helped risk-takers who were iffy about other “risky” currencies like AUD or GBP.
NZD lost its mojo at the start of the European session, though, likely due to European PMIs showcasing rocky growth in the region.
The New Zealand dollar is in the red against GBP but remains strong against USD, CAD, and CHF.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
U.S. markets out on bank holiday
ECB’s meeting minutes at 12:30 pm GMT
Canada’s quarterly company profits at 1:30 pm GMT
New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales at 9:45 pm GMT
Japan’s national core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
EUR/JPY 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
The U.S. may be on bank holiday today but that doesn’t mean we won’t see volatility among the major currencies!
EUR/JPY, in particular, looks ready to bust from its 162.92 highs and make new weekly highs.
And that’s after the PMI reports in the region continue to show weaknesses in business activities!
Let’s see if today’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes can shake up EUR/JPY’s prices. Recall that recent speeches from ECB members hint at their biases to keep interest rates high for a long period of time as well as their willingness to raise their rates further if needed.
A reminder of the ECB’s hawkishness may bump EUR/JPY to the 163.10 area of interest if not the R1 (163.29) Pivot Point line.
Before you buy EUR/JPY like it’s the last pumpkin pie at Costco, though, you should consider that EUR/JPY has come a long way from its 162.45 intraday lows. That is, it may take fresh buying momentum for EUR/JPY to clear its ascending triangle resistance.
EUR/JPY consistently trading above the 163.00 handle may attract buyers who may bet on the pair hitting previous areas of interest like 163.20 or 163.30.
But if today’s headlines inspire risk aversion or profit-taking from JPY’s losses, then EUR/JPY may hit lower inflection points before extending its short-term uptrend.
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