Commodities Watchlist: Gold’s Short-Term Uptrend Still Intact!
Just when we thought the $1,900 mark would hold as resistance, events from the past couple of days only reinforced spot gold’s uptrend.
See, economic releases from major economies like the U.S., U.K., and Japan pointed to their inflation peaking and their respective central banks being less hawkish in their next policy meetings.
A slower pace of interest rate hike – especially for the Fed – reduces the opportunity cost of owning safe-haven gold against the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
At the same time, this week’s economic themes and data releases are keeping recession fears alive in the markets.
The combo of global growth concerns and less hawkish central banks have made gold shiny again.
Spot gold (XAU/USD), which has been showing higher lows and higher highs since late December, hit resistance at $1,930 per ounce before finding support at the $1,900 zone closer to the 100 SMA and the bottom of an ascending channel.
The $1,930 resistance was tested for a second time yesterday and now the pair is pausing near the $1,920 mid-channel support.
Will XAU/USD extend its uptrend despite a second rejection at $1,930?
We’ll see the last batch of FOMC member speeches later today before their pre-decision blackout policy kicks in.
If traders focus on the Fed raising its interest rates and keeping it high for a longer period of time, then XAU/USD could retest deeper pullback levels near the 1-hour chart’s 100 SMA.
But if markets choose to price in a less hawkish Fed decision and threats of global growth slowdown, then XAU/USD could bust above $1,930 to test inflection points like $1,950 or $1,970.
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