USD/CHF hit a short-term technical resistance just as Uncle Sam is about to print its core PCE price index!
Which way do you think USD/CHF will go in the next trading sessions?
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out EUR/AUD’s mid-range levels ahead of the ECB decision. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
Kansas City fed manufacturing actual -8 (Forecast -, previous -13)
U.S pending home sales for September: 1.1% m/m (-2.0% m/m forecast; -7.1% previous)
U.S. Durable Goods in September: 4.7% m/m (1.1% m/m forecast; -0.1% m/m previous)
U.S. Advance GDP for Q3 2023: 4.9% q/q (4.0% q/q forecast; 2.1% q/q previous); core PCE Prices was 2.4% q/q (3.1% q/q forecast; 3.7% q/q previous)
Weekly U.S. Initial jobless claims: 210K (200K forecast / previous); continuing claims rose to 1.79M vs. 1.727M previous
Tokyo’s core CPI rose from 2.5% y/y to 2.7% y/y in October
Australia’s quarterly producer prices higher from 0.5% q/q to 1.8% q/q in Q3
Spain Q2 GDP revised higher from 0.4% to 0.5%; Q3 GDP slowed down to 0.3% q/q (vs. 0.2% expected)
Price Action News
Overlay of AUD vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView
The Australian dollar started the trading session by taking its (bullish) cues from its U.S. session gains.
AUD’s upswing then gained momentum after Australia reported a hotter-than-expected quarterly PPI report. Add that to the hotter-than-expected CPI printed earlier this week and you’ve got traders pricing in a November rate hike for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)!
The Aussie saw sharp gains against its major counterparts, with the comdoll making the most pips against USD and CHF while gaining the least against CAD and JPY.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
U.S. core PCE price index at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. personal income and spending at 12:30 pm GMT
Revised UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations at 2:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
USD/CHF 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView
Who else is watching USD/CHF ahead of the U.S. core PCE and personal income and spending releases?
In case you missed it, the pair has been in an uptrend all week after finding support from the .8900 psychological handle.
USD/CHF found resistance at .9010, though, and the pair looks set to retest some key inflection points ahead of the U.S. data releases.
We’ve got our eyes on the .8990 Pivot Point level that lines up with the trend line and ascending channel support in the 15-minute time frame.
If we see more economic strength in today’s data releases, then USD/CHF may attract enough buyers to inspire a retest of the R1 (.9010) intraday highs.
Of course, we’re not discounting data disappointments or an anti-USD market theme hitting the markets on the last trading day of the week.
If the U.S. dollar sees a broad-based downswing, then we can look out for a clear break below the technical support zone that we’ve identified. Just make sure that you’ve considered USD/CHF’s average daily volatility if you’re planning on trading the news today!
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