Looking for last-minute setups before the week ends?
Check out NZD/USD’s potential reversal near a key resistance zone!
Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out EUR/CHF’s resistance zone ahead of the ECB’s policy decision. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:
Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:
European Central Bank increased the deposit rate from 3.25% to 3.5% on Thursday; signaled that July hike is “very likely”
U.S. Retail Sales for May 2023: +0.3% m/m (+0.2% m/m forecast; +0.4% m/m previous); Core retails sales came in at +0.1% m/m (+0.1% m/m forecast; +0.4% m/m previous)
U.S. Initial jobless claims: 246K (242K forecast; 237K previous); continuing claims rose to 1.775 M (1.785M forecast; 1.755M previous week)
NY Fed Manufacturing Index for June: +38 points to 6.6; prices paid index dropped by 13 points to 22; No. of Employment Index fell -0.3 to -3.6
U.S. Industrial Production for May: -0.2% m/m (+0.2% m/m forecast; +0.5% m/m previous)
BusinessNZ’s manufacturing index improved from 48.8 to 48.9 in May but still marked the fifth month of contraction in seven months
BOJ kept its policies (including yield curve policies) unchanged as expected in June
Price Action News
Overlay of JPY Pairs 15-min
The Japanese yen was starting to gain ground against its major counterparts when the BOJ dropped its June policy decisions.
As expected, the central bank didn’t make any changes to any of its policies including the widely speculated yield curve control policies.
The dovish lean contrasted with the Fed and ECB’s hawkish rate hikes earlier this week, which is likely why JPY still weakened across the board at the news.
Eurozone final CPI at 9:00 am GMT
Canada’s wholesale sales at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. preliminary UoM consumer sentiment at 2:00 pm GMT
Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️
NZD/USD 15-min Forex Chart by TV
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but NZD/USD bulls still can’t make new intraweek highs!
The pair turned lower from the .6250 minor psychological handle and it looks like it’s ready to break a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 15-minute time frame.
We don’t have a lot of top-tier reports on tap over the next trading sessions, so NZD/USD’s next moves will likely take cues from overall risk sentiment.
Traders are currently friendly with risks thanks to bets that the Fed’s (and other central banks’) interest rates are nearing their peak.
But is .6250 too far a move for NZD/USD?
Continued downswing below the Head and Shoulders “neckline” could drag NZD/USD to its .6225 or .6215 previous lows.
But if the breakout below the pattern turns out to be a fakeout, then I’ll also include in my trading plan a possible revisit to NZD/USD’s weekly highs.
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