- New Zealand Employment Change misses expectations, looses jobs instead of meager gain.
- RBNZ Financial Stability Report reveals little new for investors to chew on.
- Broader market will shift attention to Wednesday’s upcoming Fed rate call.
The NZD/USD saw mild declines on Tuesday as broad-market sentiment tips in favor of the US Dollar (USD), taking the Kiwi (NZD) down from opening bids near 0.5840 after hitting a new, albeit minor high for the week near 0.5860.
The Kiwi’s downside pressure is set to continue through Wednesday as New Zealand saw an unexpected contraction in employment figures and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Financial Stability Report (FSR) revealed little of note for investors to be concerned about.
New Zealand’s Employment Change for the 3rd quarter unexpectedly contracted, printing at -0.2% against the previous quarter’s 1% gain, missing the forecast 0.4% that NZD traders expected. Despite the miss, NZ’s overall Employment Rate printed at expectations, coming in at the forecast 3.9% against the 2nd quarter’s 3.6%, so overall market effect was restrained.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr delivered the NZ central bank’s latest FSR, with the RBNZ head noting that significant risks remain on the horizon as New Zealand households and businesses continue to grapple with higher debt servicing costs. The NZ financial system is still adjusting to a higher-rate environment, and the RBNZ looks unlikely to raise rates any time soon as the central bank remains leery of potential declines or deterioration in asset quality.
Markets will now turn their eyes to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call, where markets are expecting the US central bank to keep rates where they are, but investor bets of one last 25-basis-point rate hike to close out the year are on the rise in the face of firm US economic data and sticky inflation metrics that refuse to decline on-pace with market expectations.
NZD/USD Technical Outlook
The Kiwi continues to waffle into the low end of the charts, but there’s only so far the NZD can fall, and the pair is struggling to extend further declines below 0.5800 despite broad-market US Dollar strength.
Bullish recovery still sees significant technical resistance, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) descending into the 0.5900 handle region, and the NZD/USD continues to test the waters on the low end of 2023’s prices.
NZD/USD Daily Chart
NZD/USD Technical Levels
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