- Nvidia is trading lower at the start of Wednesday’s session.
- NVDA is more than 13% off its August 24 all-time high.
- The Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision at 14:00 EST.
- Taiwan Semiconductor announcement still weighing on sector.
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is trading flat on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision that takes place at 14:00 EST / 18:00 GMT. NVDA stock is trading 0.03% lower as Wednesday’s session at $435.00, as Wednesday’s session gets underway.
The NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 and Dow Jones have all slipped after a false-positive start in which the Dow took the lead and the NASDAQ brought up the rear.
Nvidia stock news: Interest rate pause should aid equity market
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool gives the Fed a 99% chance of pausing rates at the 5.25% to 5.5% range. That should alleviate the market’s fears as higher interest rates boost Treasuries and reduce the relative value of equities. Nvidia stock should benefit if rates remain unchanged. In the event of an interest rate hike, however, expect the entire market to sell-off.
Before the market opened, Nvidia announced a new partnership with India’s Infosys (INFY). The latter will utilize Nvidia’s AI tools and platforms to offer its customers access to various generative AI solutions and integrations.
In other news, on Tuesday UBS released a report on the secondary GPU market. They found that volumes have dropped precipitously, but this appears to be due to a lack of supply. Prices on average ticked up 3% from July.
Nvidia shareholders face possible demand shortfall
As the leading stock in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry based on the supply of its advanced GPUs, Nvidia has garnered an industry-leading valuation. The stock is valued at 45 times forward GAAP earnings. If those profits fail to materialize, then shareholders are always at risk of a profound sell-off.
Consensus earnings are expected to rise 224% this fiscal year, 48% the following year and 25% the year after that. Likewise, revenue is expected to spike 101% this fiscal year, 43% the following year, and 23% the year after that. A lot is then riding on Nvidia’s commercial performance to make this high valuation sensible.
It didn’t help things then that Nvidia’s primary foundry partner, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), announced last Friday that it was delaying the delivery of equipment it had previously ordered from suppliers like ASML Holdings (ASML). Management blamed the delay on worries over demand from its customers, which was quite surprising.
Ever since OpenAI released ChatGPT in late 2022, most semiconductor headlines have mostly concerned themselves with lack of supply. Demand was reported to be unquenchable, and rumors abounded of various companies and nations stockpiling Nvidia’s H100 GPUs.
It is possible demand is only receding for Taiwan Semi’s other customers – such as Apple (AAPL) or Advanced Micro Devices – but Nvidia is certainly the foundry’s most famous client. Placing the blame on demand might also be a bait-and-switch tactic, since Taiwan Semiconductor recently shifted its start date for production at its new Arizona foundries by one year to 2025, blaming that delay on lack of manpower.
In other news, the UK’s Competition & Markets Authority released seven principles for regulating artificial intelligence on Monday. The regulatory authority named Nvidia by name as one of the corporations it would be holding discussions with on the matter.
Nvidia FAQs
Nvidia is the leading fabless designer of graphics processing units or GPUs. These sophisticated devices allow computers to better process graphics for display interfaces by accelerating computer memory and RAM. This is especially true in the world of video games, where Nvidia graphics cards became a mainstay of the industry. Additionally, Nvidia is well-known as the creator of its CUDA API that allows developers to create software for a number of industries using its parallel computing platform. Nvidia chips are leading products in the data center, supercomputing and artificial intelligence industries. The company is also viewed as one of the inventors of the system-on-a-chip design.
Current CEO Jensen Huang founded Nvidia with Chris Malachowsky and Curtis Priem in 1993. All three founders were semiconductor engineers, who had previously worked at AMD, Sun Microsystems, IBM and Hewlett-Packard. The team set out to build more proficient GPUs than currently existed in the market and largely succeeded by late 1990s. The company was founded with $40,000 but secured $20 million in funding from Sequoia Capital venture fund early on. Nvidia went public in 1999 under the ticker NVDA. Nvidia became a leading designer of chips to the data center, PC, automotive and mobile markets through its close relationship with Taiwan Semiconductor.
In 2022, Nvidia released its ninth-generation data center GPU called the H100. This GPU is specifically designed with the needs of artificial intelligence applications in mind. For instance, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and GPT-4 large language models (LLMs) rely on the H100’s high efficiency in parallel processing to execute a high number of commands quickly. The chip is said to speed up networks by six times Nvidia’s previous A100 chip and is based on the new Hopper architecture. The H100 chip contains 80 billion transistors. Nvidia’s market cap reached $1 trillion in May 2023 largely on the promise of its H100 chip becoming the “picks and shovels” of the coming AI revolution.
Long-time CEO Jense Huang has a cult following in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street due to his strict loyalty and determination to build Nvidia into one of the world’s leading companies. Nvidia neary fell apart on several occasions, but each time Huang bet everything on a new technology that turned out to be the ticket to the company’s success. Huang is seen as a visionary in Silicon Valley, and his company is at the forefront of most major breakthroughs in computer processing. Huang is known for his enthusiastic keynote addresses at annual Nvidia GTC conferences, as well as his love of black leather jackets and Denny’s, the fast food chain where the company was founded.
Nvidia stock forecast
Nvidia has not made a new high since its August 24 earnings spike that immediately sold off. The next rally a week later failed to take, and NVDA has been moving lower ever since. Technically, to end its uptrend that begin this spring, Nvidia stock needs to sink below the August 14 low of $403.11.
Based on the daily chart below, bulls and shareholders alike will hope it stops at the $420 support level that has reinforced price action in several sessions this year. Already trading below the 50-day Simple Moving Average, the 100-day SMA comes next and is currently trading just above $408. Below there is the $400 to $403 demand zone.
On the other hand, a break back above the 50-day SMA will do wonders to re-engage bulls.
NVDA daily chart
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