How to play the long term trend decelerating lower

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Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

Price

WFC last price was $ 43.84.

Trend analysis

In the short term Wells Fargo has been decelerating lower. In the long term Wells Fargo has been decelerating lower.

Value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the WFC price increased 4 days and decreased 15 days.

For every up day, there were 3.75 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 1.4712%

The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0463%

Performance

Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -9.55% percent.

Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.5026% percent.

Trade idea

With the long term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Sell $ 164,070 USD of Wells Fargo, take profit at $ 43.5731 level with 50.0% odds for a $ 998 USD gain, stop out at $ 44.1072 with 49.96% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Intraday predictions

WFC trend analysis

WFC last price was $ 43.84 . The long term trend decelerating lower is stronger than the short term trend decelerating lower. This trade goes short when the price was moving lower and decelerating over the past 19 days.

WFC value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the WFC price increased 4 days and decreased 15 days. For every up day, there were 3.75 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 1.4712% The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0463% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -9.55% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.5026% percent.

WFC worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won’t trade for WFC, is $ 43.0586 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 44.6214 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 44.1072 could trade and that $ 43.5731 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Expected range

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won’t trade for WFC, is $ 43.0586 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 44.6214 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade.

We are 50% confident that $ 44.1072 could trade and that $ 43.5731 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Probability vs payout chart

This graph contrasts the percentage payout of holding a position vs the probability that the payout occurs. The red and green columns represent the probability of stopping out and taking profit and their associated payouts.

Key Takeaways

• Price today $ 43.84.

• Over the past 19 days, the WFC price increased 4 days and decreased 15 Days.

• For every up day, there were 3.75 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 1.4712%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -1.0463%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -9.55% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.5026% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been decelerating: $ -0.0358 per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by $ -0.42.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.958 %.

• Over the last session, the price decelerated by $ -1.51.