USD/JPY has been the talk of the town as bulls try their hardest to sustain a break above the mythical resistance area at 150.00. Will they get another shot this week or will the bears break the uptrend?
USD/JPY 4-Hour Forex Chart by TradingView
USD/JPY is probably THE forex pair to watch this week with both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve (don’t forget to check out Event Guide: FOMC Statement – November 2023!) giving their latest monetary policy statements, as well as the latest jobs update from the U.S.
Those events will determine the level of volatility and likely directional lean this week so stay on top of those news events, and from a pure price perspective, we think there are a few clear areas to watch and structure your next risk management plan around on this pair.
First, the pair is in an overall uptrend, going back to the Summer when the market bottomed out just above the 137.00 handle back in July. And now, traders are currently battling around the 150.00 handle with the bears holding the line strongly, even taking back control after the pair spiked to around 150.76.
The question now is whether or not 150.00 will retest and hold and is this ultimately the top for USD/JPY at the moment? Again, it’s up to the fundies, but if the bears are really back in control, a move lower to the broken resistance-then-support area is likely the next area of interest, and within reach being one Daily ATR (75 pips) away from current market prices.
Given the current uptrend, technical bulls will likely battle back for control around the 148.00 handle and it’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top there.
The second question is, “what if this isn’t the top?” If this week’s fundies once again support USD bulls, then there are two scenario to watch. First, if 148.00 is retested and holds, is that the start of a new leg higher?
Or if the market moves straight up from here, then another break of 150.00 is possible and more likely to draw in more bulls than bears, barring some government or central bank intervention.
Again, it’s all on how the fundamentals play out, but what you do think? Are you leaning bullish or bearish on USD/JPY this week? Let us know in the comment section below!
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